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2017 Atlantic hurricane season (Mario's prediction)
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was the most disastrous Atlantic hurricane season since 2005. With a total of 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, it was the most active since 2012, and the fourth-most active on record overall. Seasonal forecasts Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes and major (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale) hurricanes will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the dissipation of the 2014–16 El Niño event. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. Pre-season outlooks The first forecast for the year was issued by TSR on December 13, 2016. They anticipated that the 2017 season would be a near-average season, with a prediction of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted an ACE index of around 101 units. On December 14, CSU released a qualitative discussion detailing five possible scenarios for the 2017 season, taking into account the state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the possibility of El Niño developing during the season. TSR lowered their forecast numbers on April 5, 2017 to 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, based on recent trends favoring the development of El Niño. The next day, CSU released their prediction, also predicting a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. On April 17, The Weather Company released their forecasts, calling for 2017 to be a near-average season, with a total of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The next day, on April 18, North Carolina State University released their prediction, also predicting a near-average season, with a total of 11–15 named storms, 4–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes. On May 20, The Weather Company issued an updated forecast, raising their numbers to 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes to account for Tropical Storm Arlene as well as the decreasing chance of El Niño forming during the season. On May 25, NOAA released their prediction, citing a 70% chance of an above average season due to "a weak or nonexistent El Niño", calling for 11–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes. On May 26, TSR updated its prediction to around the same numbers as its December 2016 prediction, with only a minor change in the expected ACE index amount to 98 units. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:800 height:265 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/04/2017 till:31/12/2017 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/04/2017 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:19/04/2017 till:21/04/2017 color:TS text:"Arlene (TS)" from:10/06/2017 till:13/06/2017 color:TS text:"Bret (TS)" from:14/06/2017 till:16/06/2017 color:TS text:"Cindy (TS)" from:25/06/2017 till:30/06/2017 color:C2 text:"Don (C2)" from:04/07/2017 till:17/07/2017 color:C4 text:"Emily (C4)" from:22/07/2017 till:26/07/2017 color:C4 text:"Franklin (C4)" from:28/07/2017 till:31/07/2017 color:TS text:"Gert (TS)" from:31/07/2017 till:02/08/2017 color:TD text:"Seven (TD)" from:10/08/2017 till:20/08/2017 color:TS text:"Harvey (TS)" from:22/08/2017 till:26/08/2017 color:C2 text:"Irma (C2)" from:30/08/2017 till:11/09/2017 color:C5 text:"Jose (C5)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/04/2017 till:30/04/2017 text:April from:01/05/2017 till:31/05/2017 text:May from:01/06/2017 till:30/06/2017 text:June from:01/07/2017 till:31/07/2017 text:July from:01/08/2017 till:31/08/2017 text:August from:01/09/2017 till:30/09/2017 text:September from:01/10/2017 till:31/10/2017 text:October from:01/11/2017 till:30/11/2017 text:November from:01/12/2017 till:31/12/2017 text:December TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(618,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale)" The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2017. Systems Tropical Storm Arlene An extratropical cyclone formed along a cold front well to the southeast of Newfoundland on April 15, producing waves as high as 40 feet (12 m) over subsequent days. The system initially failed to organize appreciably; by April 17, however, sporadic convection began to coalesce around an increasingly well defined circulation. This process continued with the formation of a curved banding feature near the center on April 19, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to upgrade the low to Subtropical Depression One at 15:00 UTC that day. At this time, the system was situated 890 mi (1,435 km) southwest of the Azores. Little change in strength occurred throughout the day. Convection became more concentrated and the system's wind field contracted during the early morning hours of April 20, and the system transitioned to a fully tropical cyclone at 15:00 UTC that day. Six hours later, despite forecasts predicting it would dissipate, the storm unexpectedly strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene. Revolving around the aforementioned low to its west, Arlene defied forecasts again and attained a peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h) at 03:00 UTC on April 21, despite a deteriorating satellite presentation. Twelve hours later, however, Arlene became embedded within the aforementioned larger extratropical cyclone, and lost its identity as a tropical cyclone. Arlene's remnants continued to persist through the next day, executing a counterclockwise loop around the larger extratropical cyclone, while in the process of merging with it. Early on April 23, the remnants of Arlene fully merged into the larger extratropical system. Upon its formation as a subtropical depression on April 19, Arlene was the sixth known subtropical or tropical cyclone to form in the month of April in the Atlantic basin; the other instances were Ana in 2003, a subtropical storm in April 1992, and three tropical depressions in 1912, 1915, and 1973, respectively. When Arlene became a tropical storm on April 20, this marked only the second such occurrence on record, after Ana in 2003. Furthermore, it had the lowest central pressure of any Atlantic storm recorded in the month of April, with a central pressure of 993 mbar (hPa; 29.32 inHg), again surpassing Ana. Tropical Storm Bret A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on June 13 and was first monitored by the National Hurricane Center shortly afterwards. Development, however, was expected to be slow due to its low latitude and relatively fast motion. As it moved swiftly across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean, the disturbance began to gradually organize, and the NHC raised development chances slightly on June 16. Little change in organization occurred until June 18, at which point a burst of convection near the center of the disturbance prompted the NHC to designate the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 21:00 UTC. This was the agency's first designation of a disturbance that had not yet developed into a tropical cyclone. The storm continued to organize as it accelerated towards Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago throughout the night, with banding features becoming evident. Later on June 19, the system developed a closed low-level circulation and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret at 21:00 UTC. One day later, at 21:00 UTC on June 20, the last advisory on Bret was issued following its degeneration into a tropical wave. According to Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Bret was the earliest storm to form in the Main Development Region on record, surpassing a record set by Tropical Storm Ana in 1979. Bret was also the lowest latitude named storm in the month of June since 1933 at 9.4°N. In Trinidad, one person died after he slipped and fell while running across a makeshift bridge; the fatality is considered indirectly related to Bret. Tropical Storm Cindy The NHC first began monitoring the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on June 13. A large area of disturbed weather developed within the region three days later, and it slowly organized while entering the central Gulf of Mexico, prompting the NHC to begin advisories on a potential tropical cyclone on June 19. The structure of the system was initially sprawling, with tropical storm-force winds well displaced from a broad area of low pressure with embedded swirls. A reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system around 18:00 UTC the following day was able to pinpoint a well-defined center, resulting in the formation of Tropical Storm Cindy. Despite the presence of dry air and strong wind shear, the cyclone still managed to attain peak winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) before weakening on approach to the Louisiana coastline. It made landfall between Port Arthur, Texas and Cameron, Louisiana early on June 22 and weakened while progressing inland. A state of emergency was declared for Biloxi, Mississippi in anticipation of flooding. A ten-year-old boy died from injuries sustained during the storm in Fort Morgan, Alabama. A second fatality later occurred in Bolivar Peninsula, Texas. Hurricane Don Hurricane Emily Hurricane Franklin Tropical Storm Gert Tropical Depression Seven Tropical Storm Harvey Hurricane Irma Hurricane Jose Hurricane Katia Hurricane Lee Tropical Storm Maria Hurricane Nate Tropical Storm Ophelia Tropical Storm Philippe Hurricane Rina Subtropical Storm Sean Season effects This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2017 USD. See also *List of Atlantic hurricane seasons *2017 Pacific hurricane season *2017 Pacific typhoon season *2017 North Indian Ocean cyclone season *South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2016–17, 2017–18 *Australian region cyclone seasons: 2016–17, 2017–18 *South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2016–17, 2017–18 Category:Past Hurricane Seasons Category:Past Atlantic Seasons